Raffaella A. Tenconi is the founder of ADA and the head of research. She is the daughter of two entrepreneurs and grew up in Lombardy, Italy, before moving to the UK, where she read a BSc in Philosophy and Economics at the London School of Economics (LSE) and a two-year MSc in Global Market Economics, also at the LSE.
She started her career specialising in emerging Asia countries and was among the first to underscore that Asian consumers had turned into spenders and not savers, as well as flagging the rise of India as a growth power house. She later moved to Europe, focusing on Euro candidate countries and Iceland, taking an active role in advising private investors and the Icelandic government during the financial crisis. She also worked closely with officials in Hungary during the 2010 financial crisis, and Italian officials after the Monti government. Over the course of her career, Raffaella has been a lead economist for 20 different countries across the globe.
Raffaella has worked for several research houses and investment banks of different sizes and headquartered in different countries: Oxford Economics Research Associates; Lombard Street Research; Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Investment Bank; Straumur Investment Bank; WOOD & Company; and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Apart from Italian and English, Raffaella is proficient in French and Spanish, and speaks basic Polish.
Aside from her passion for understanding how economies work, Raffaella has developed a pseudo-obsession for discovering the link between risk appetite and economic growth. ADA is also working on research projections on the impact of artificial intelligence on societies, the impact of inequality of corporate balance sheets on economic growth, and the link between maternity support policies and productivity (the latter topic imposed itself with the happy arrival of her first son).
Over the course of her career, some of her out-of-consensus calls can be found below:
- Asian tigers is no longer a region of savers (2005)
- Indian growth is about to take off (2005)
- Latvia is about to enter a financial crisis (2007)
- Iceland: an unbalanced banking sector (2007)
- Poland: will dodge the recession (2009)
- Hungary: the appointment of Orban will bring significant market and policy volatility (2010)
- Eurozone crisis: Make it or break it – QE to extend at infinitum (2010)
- Ukraine: Talk about default in 2014 & unsustainable currency (2012)
- Czech Republic: FX floor is here to stay and is more likely to be raised than dropped (2013)
- Poland: Interest rates are heading for 1.50% (2013)
- Italy: The rise of 5 stars (2013)
- Italy: Yields to compress to 1% (2014)
- CEE: calling the bottom of house prices (2014)
- US Fed: only 50bp of rate hikes coming (2015)
- UK: EU referendum: We bet on the Leave camp winning (2016)
- US: Trump has a genuine shot at winning the 2016 presidential elections (2015)
- Italy: The NO vote is likely to win in high turnout, but this is not a vote about PM Renzi (2016)
- France: Melenchon’s support is underestimated in the opinion polls ( March 2017)
“Raffaella is one of the most knowledgeable and insightful European macro economists with deep expertise and value-added perspective across the entirety of this important region. Over many years her insights into the political economy of the Eurozone and Emerging Europe have proven valuable to me and to our investment process.”
Blaise C. Antin
Head of Sovereign Research
The TCW Group
“Over the many years I have known Raffaella Tenconi, she has demonstrated outstanding analytical and technical competence in the field of macroeconomic research. I was a regular reader of her work both during the years I worked as a fund manager and also later when I served as a ministry official. Her professional track record in covering not only CEE but also euro area macroeconomic developments has earned her an excellent reputation in investment banking and asset management circles.”
Chief Operating at Richter Gedeon Plc & Former State Secretary of the Hungarian Minister for the National Economy
“Rafaella Tenconi founded ADA to provide an innovative brand of research combining extensive experience and impressive credentials in macroeconomic and market analysis with novel insights from extensive field and survey work in a number of European economies. Her mission has become a remarkable success. Her combination of sound economic analysis and in-depth surveys and her passion for questioning the “established wisdom” have allowed Raffaella to provide deep and novel insights into the interplay of economics, finance and politics in the countries she analyzes. Her intellectual rigor and – if necessary – courage to challenge consensus views have enabled her to make some impressive and valuable calls like her out-of-market prediction that Britain would vote for Brexit. Her work has helped me to significantly deepen my understanding of the forces shaping the future of ‘Project Europe’.”
Markus Krygier, PhD, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Strategic Investment Group