February 21, 2019
Business cycle – Germany: Many more problems lie ahead.
According to the preliminary estimate for 4Q18, real GDP grew by 0.6% yoy, slowing from…
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February 21, 2019
FX outlook – Hungary: Forint.
The Hungarian forint has been recovering, since reaching a weak level of 326.5 against the…
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February 14, 2019
FX – Poland: Zloty.
EUR/PLN exchange saw a mild weakening of the zloty from 4.2 to 4.3 in the first…
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February 7, 2019
FX – Russia: RUB stable, despite improving fundamentals.
The USD/RUB stood at 66.5 in January 2019, consistent with the fair value our model…
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February 7, 2019
Business cycle – US: The hottest country in the world.
In his state of the nation speech delivered last tuesday, President Trump made the point…
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February 1, 2019
Business cycle – France: Feeling unwell and with no fast pain relief at hand.
The first estimate of 4Q GDP showed that the economy grew by 0.3% qoq and…
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February 1, 2019
FX outlook – Turkey: Prospects for the lira.
The USD/TRY exchange rate fell to a low of 5.25 in the second half of January, remaining…
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January 25, 2019
Business cycle – Romania: Too much, too fast, too frail.
The budget season in Romania has been an acutely volatile period under the PSD-led government. In…
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January 25, 2019
Borrowing costs – Italy: Steady.
10-year sovereign local bond yields in Italy fell to a low of 2.70% in the first half…
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January 3, 2019
The power of the business cycle: 5 themes to keep in mind in the coming year
We started the year by giving a presentation on the key themes for 2019 at…
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