April 8, 2020
The roller coaster business cycle
The economic challenges we are facing at present and those ahead for the coming few…
March 18, 2020
The new normal: infinite QE and higher rates
There are so many moving parts these days that it is easy to feel completely…
December 12, 2019
The Fed is fooling you and herself
The FOMC kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75%, as widely…
February 21, 2019
Business cycle – Germany: Many more problems lie ahead.
According to the preliminary estimate for 4Q18, real GDP grew by 0.6% yoy, slowing from…
February 21, 2019
FX outlook – Hungary: Forint.
The Hungarian forint has been recovering, since reaching a weak level of 326.5 against the…
February 14, 2019
FX – Poland: Zloty.
EUR/PLN exchange saw a mild weakening of the zloty from 4.2 to 4.3 in the first…
February 7, 2019
FX – Russia: RUB stable, despite improving fundamentals.
The USD/RUB stood at 66.5 in January 2019, consistent with the fair value our model…
February 7, 2019
Business cycle – US: The hottest country in the world.
In his state of the nation speech delivered last tuesday, President Trump made the point…
February 1, 2019
FX outlook – Turkey: Prospects for the lira.
The USD/TRY exchange rate fell to a low of 5.25 in the second half of January, remaining…
