February 14, 2019
FX – Poland: Zloty.
EUR/PLN exchange saw a mild weakening of the zloty from 4.2 to 4.3 in the first…
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February 7, 2019
Politics – UK: The risk of no deal is rising.
We have long held the view that, ultimately, the most likely outcome of the UK…
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February 7, 2019
FX – Russia: RUB stable, despite improving fundamentals.
The USD/RUB stood at 66.5 in January 2019, consistent with the fair value our model…
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February 7, 2019
Business cycle – US: The hottest country in the world.
In his state of the nation speech delivered last tuesday, President Trump made the point…
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February 1, 2019
Politics – Italian politics: At a very delicate juncture.
The political scene is about to enter a critical juncture, in our view, for all the three…
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February 1, 2019
Business cycle – France: Feeling unwell and with no fast pain relief at hand.
The first estimate of 4Q GDP showed that the economy grew by 0.3% qoq and…
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February 1, 2019
FX outlook – Turkey: Prospects for the lira.
The USD/TRY exchange rate fell to a low of 5.25 in the second half of January, remaining…
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January 25, 2019
Politics – EU elections: “populism” on hold?
In the last month, the opinion polls in the big four Eurozone member states show…
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January 25, 2019
Business cycle – Romania: Too much, too fast, too frail.
The budget season in Romania has been an acutely volatile period under the PSD-led government. In…
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January 25, 2019
Borrowing costs – Italy: Steady.
10-year sovereign local bond yields in Italy fell to a low of 2.70% in the first half…
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