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February 21, 2019

Politics – Russia: Globally assertive, improving locally

We see the dispute between Europe, the US and Russia as a long-lasting one, which…
Raffaella Tenconi
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27 Oct

Our Founder & MD @RA_Tenconi has been invited to this year’s Hungarian Business Leaders’ Forum – the #XXIIFinancialSummit – which will take place on 30 October.

Check her latest article for a small preview & register to the event: https://penzugyicsucs.com

Raffaella Tenconi@RA_Tenconi

I am delighted to participate in this year’s Hungarian Business Leaders’ Forum – the #XXIIFinancialSummit – which will take place on 30 October

Here's a little preview:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hblf-xxii-financial-summit-30-october-2020-raffaella-tenconi via @LinkedIn

Visit their website to register to the event! https://penzugyicsucs.com

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Our Founder & MD, Raffaella Tenconi, has been invi Our Founder & MD, Raffaella Tenconi, has been invited to this year’s Hungarian Business Leaders’ Forum – the XXII Financial Summit – which will take place on 30 October. She will talk about the changes we have seen in corporate balance sheets, and the effects on European GDP potential and the exchange rate trajectory. Our attention is so captured by near-term events (US elections, second lockdown, children’s virtual classes, and so on) that it is hard to keep track of the longer trends, especially a peculiar one like the one she will discuss. Trust us when we say that it is enormously important to understand, monitor and debate what we are observing, as the repercussions will be powerful for economies and for the democratic process. Check her latest article for a small preview & register to the event! Link in bio 🔗 —— #hungarian #business #leaders #forum #hblf #XXII #financial #summit #2020 #onlineevent #conference #panel #panelist #longterm #trends #corporate #balancesheets #corporations #companies #postcovid19 #newnormal2020 #monitor #debate #economy #economics #macro #keytrends #implications #hungary🇭🇺 #europe🇪🇺
Before the pandemic, France presented a strong cor Before the pandemic, France presented a strong corporate balance sheet with significant corporate profit growth. In the first half of the year, the corporate sector's profits shrank sharply when compared with the German corporate sector. We see corporate profits and investment in 2021E as key variables to understand French long-term economic growth. (Chart 1) As the economy reopens, the number of employees under the French furlough scheme decline but suggesting that unemployment rate will probably reach two-digits in the medium term. (Chart 2) —— 📊 Notes & Methodology Chart 1: Profits measured by gross operating surplus from national accounts (yoy). Chart 2: ADA’s unemployment proxy is built by keeping March’s labour force fixed and assuming furloughed workers are unemployed. —— #economics #macroeconomics #macro_france #france #postcovid19 #dataanalytics #dataanalyst #profits #profitgrowth #growth #corporate #sector #corporatebalancesheet #balancesheet #germany #italy #investment #variables #economicgrowth #employees #reopening #postlockdown #furlough #scheme #furloughedworkers #unemployed #unemployment #rate #adaviews #france🇫🇷
During the previous global downturn, investment fe During the previous global downturn, investment fell sharply between -15% and -30% across the countries under analysis. The absence of investment compromises the long-term growth as it impacts productivity gains negatively and limits capacity utilization. So far, the investment impacts from the pandemic has been strongly asymmetric: countries such as CE4 and Germany, which contained the COVID-19 relatively well, presented investment disruptions relatively mild when compared with 2009 and its peers. We currently see the possibility of a second round of lockdowns and restrictions as a major risk for long-term growth. —— 📊 Notes & methodology: year-on-year growth of Gross Capital Formation in 2Q2020 vs. the lowest level observed in 2009. With the exception of Turkey and Romania, which we calculated Gross Fixed Capital Formation variations. —— #economics #macroeconomics #postcovid19 #investments #falling #downturn #longterm #growth #economicgrowth #capacityutilization #pandemic #impact #asymmetric #ce4 #germany #disruption #lockdown2020 #restrictions #risk #adaviews #germany🇩🇪 #france🇫🇷 #italy🇮🇹 #greece🇬🇷 #hungary🇭🇺 #czechrepublic🇨🇿 #poland🇵🇱 #romania🇹🇩 #usa🇺🇸 #turkey🇹🇷
A greener Europe, I say! …too bad that it is h A greener Europe, I say! …too bad that it is hard to genuinely believe in a greener Europe if we don’t put the effort in measuring the alarming shortening of the usable life of goods and services (which creates enormous pollution) and we are not ready to acknowledge that the digitalisation process we are observing needs a profound rethinking of competition rules and enforcement… Just like in business life: management guidance without proper bottom up feedback to improve implementation usually leads nowhere good. —— #politics #economics #macroeconomics #europeanunion #eu #greeneurope #vonderleyen #ursulavonderleyen #green #environment #climate #climatechange #pollution #measuring #shortening #life #goods #services #rethinking #digitalisation #competitionrules #enforcement #business #management #guidance #bottomup #feedback #implementation #adaviews #europe🇪🇺
Our expectations for the GBP against the EUR: On t Our expectations for the GBP against the EUR: On the back of our view that a trade deal with the EU will be reached ultimately, we expect the currency to hover in line with the fair value (benign scenario) over 2020E and 2021E. As a result, we see the GBP/EUR moving towards 1.05 at the end of 2020E, and appreciating slightly, towards 1.08 in 2021E and 1.13 in 2022E. Scenarios to consider: our alternative scenario integrates, instead, forecasts in line with a disruptive no deal at the end of 2020E. In this scenario, with the detailed assumptions above, the GBP outlook is substantially weaker, with the GBP/EUR standing at 0.97 in 2021E and 1.02 in 2022E. —— #economics #macroeconomics #fx #foreignexchange #forex #fxanalysis #gbp #eurgbp #eur #uk #brexit #negotiations #harshbrexit #deal #nodeal #forexsignals #forexanalysis #forextrades #forexchart #forexmarkets #forexnews #forexuk #fxsignals #fxtrading #fxmodel #fxoutlook #fxscenario #europe🇪🇺 #brexit🇪🇺 #unitedkingdom🇬🇧
Greece: no signals of recovery. In the second qu Greece: no signals of recovery. In the second quarter of the year, Greece GDP fell by approximately 15% yoy; but unlike most of its peers, the economic sentiment does not show any significant improvement as the tourism activity remains weak. In these charts we compare the economic sentiment indicator of Greece to some of its peers: Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. —— #economics #macroeconomics #macro_greece #greece #esi #economicsentiment #eu #europe #czechrepublic #poland #hungary #indicators #signals #recovery #postcovid19 #europeansentiment #2Q20 #gdp #tourism #crisis #weak #improvement #activity #tourism_greece #adaviews #europe🇪🇺 #czechrepublic🇨🇿 #poland🇵🇱 #hungary🇭🇺 #greece🇬🇷
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