UK: Conservatives keep the lead, but no deal risk rises

By October 19, 2018 No Comments

Two things have caught our attention recently. First, the speeches at the party congresses held by Labour and the Conservatives at the beginning of October showed, in our view, that the Labour party is becoming more sophisticated and pleasing to a wider audience, but not yet enough to translate into a victory if elections were to take place in the next two years, in our view. The Conservatives still have a more effective pitch, and the economy remains strong enough that moderate voters are unlikely to opt for what is perceived to be the more risky option, as represented by Labour.

At the same time, we fear that, as European politics becomes more intricate ahead of the European elections in 2019, the chances of no deal and no extension of the negotiations are rising, as some may believe that a difficult UK exit from the EU would encourage voters on the Continent to swing towards the more traditional and pro-EU parties. We believe that this strategy would bring severe economic costs to all, and could well prove ineffective in pushing voters to EPP or S&D. Disillusioned voters are unlikely to return to old options at a time of crisis: they will either not vote, or choose new faces that offer new solutions to old problems.