We live in an age of information overload. We are bombarded by commentators and news outlets, informing us about economic releases, financial market changes and governmental decisions. However, there is a scarcity of avenues to translate these developments into usable guidance on what it means for you: for your investment decisions, for your business, for your life.
We aim to address this gap. We leverage on our experience, our data and our modelling capabilities to translate economic and financial news into a concise message, which pins down the consequences for the economic outlook, currencies and other financial variables.
ADA’s philosophy behind any analysis mixes three aspects: data and econometric modelling, deep understanding of legal and policy processes and how it has evolved historically, and cross checking of information via proprietary surveys we conduct across countries.
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In a world with the free movement of labour and capital, the quality of living is likely to increasingly become a key driver of the competitiveness of countries. A first area of urgent attention in our view is maternity: we invest too little in this area and the education-work cycle appears inadequate and suboptimal given the technological leap countries are going through.
Any genuinely effective economic growth strategy for Italy should begin by acknowledging that we live in a world where policies and regulation structurally favours an increasing polarisation of the financial means of companies, to the benefit of ultra large companies, but the detriment of micro, small, medium and start-up companies. There are ways to partially correct this imbalance and we think there is a unique role for the State to play here in a country of the scale of Italy.
The combination of persistently low interest rates, the current technological leap and deepening globalisation is creating ultra-large companies across sectors.
This process is different from the past in two aspects: the size & the frequency.
What are the implications?
The current inflation target framework is not adequate to the challenges we face and will unfold in the coming decade.
An important channel of inflation, which is not monitored at all by policy makers but is implicit in the background, is the environmental cost from shortening the life span of goods and services – which is de facto a form of inflation and has significant financial cost for families and on the long term health of the whole planet. It is time refresh the approach.
Big data and AI is increasingly being used in production processes and for predictive – risk management decisions.
What is it?
The Romanian economy has been hit by multiple shocks in 2020: COVID-19, a bad harvest, and the end of the UK transition period before it leaves the EU.
This is an extract of our Romania 2021 outlook, and our expectations for the coming year.
Czech household spending and fixed investment have been badly affected by the COVID-19 restrictions, which has also resulted in a lacklustre recovery, if compared to other CE economies.
This is an extract of our Czech Republic 2021 outlook, and our expectations for the coming year.
We expect the Italian economy to contract around 9% this year, above its peers that have been affected deeply by the virus (e.g. France and Spain). However, we expect economic recovery to be very slow.
This is an extract of our Italy 2021 outlook, and our expectations for the coming year.
There is growing evidence suggesting a genuine policy shift geared more credibly towards anchoring inflation around 9-10% instead of implicitly allowing a creeping up of inflation rates to double digits.
This is an extract of our Turkey 2021 outlook, and our expectations in the coming year.
Real GDP growth has the potential to accelerate to 5.3% in 2021E, if the COVID-19 virus is contained quickly and on the back of continuing strong monetary and fiscal stimuli.
This is an extract of our Poland 2021 outlook, and our expectations in the coming year.