About ADA

Analyse. Debate. Act.
Economic & political forecasting.

ADA’s philosophy behind any analysis mixes three aspects: data and econometric modelling, deep understanding of legal and policy processes and how it has evolved historically, and cross checking of information via proprietary surveys we conduct across countries. We believe that mixing these three approaches is the best way to discern news that is, de facto, just “noise” from genuinely important developments, as well as having an informed view on when changes will become material for the economy.

ADA is the brainchild of Raffaella A. Tenconi, she founded the company in 2015. She is the daughter of two entrepreneurs and grew up in Lombardy, Italy, before moving to the UK, where she gained a BSc in Philosophy and Economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and a two-year MSc in Global Market Economics, also at the LSE.

Over the past 17 years, Raffaella has worked as a business economist for the following companies: OXERA; Lombard Street Research; Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein Investment Bank; Straumur Investment Bank; WOOD & Company; and Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

She has a passion for understanding how economies work, and an even greater desire to turn research into an effective tool for financial decision making.

Track Record

  • Asian tigers is no longer a region of savers (2005)
  • Indian growth is about to take off (2005)
  • Latvia is about to enter a financial crisis (2007)
  • Iceland: an unbalanced banking sector (2007)
  • Poland: will dodge the recession (2009)
  • Hungary: the appointment of Orban will bring significant market and policy volatility (2010)
  • Eurozone crisis: Make it or break it – QE to extend at infinitum (2010)
  • Ukraine: Talk about default in 2014 & unsustainable currency (2012)
  • Czech Republic: FX floor is here to stay and is more likely to be raised than dropped (2013)
  • Poland: Interest rates are heading for 1.50% (2013)
  • Italy: The rise of 5 stars (2013)
  • Italy: Yields to compress to 1% (2014)
  • CEE: calling the bottom of house prices (2014)
  • US Fed: only 50bp of rate hikes coming (2015)
  • UK: EU referendum: We bet on the Leave camp winning (2016)
  • US: Trump has a genuine shot at winning the 2016 presidential elections (2015)
  • Italy: The NO vote is likely to win in high turnout, but this is not a vote about PM Renzi (2016)
  • France: Melenchon’s support is underestimated in the opinion polls ( March 2017)
  • The economy is strong, but Merkel isn’t (August 2017)
  • Italy: A serious look at M5-NL coalition post the spring 2018 elections (August 2017)
  • We are underestimating inflation and that will sap consumption (January 2018)
  • Europe has passed the peak of the business cycle, bearish signal for the stock market (March 2018)
  • Russia rates will carry on dropping beyond CBR’s guidance (November 2018)
  • Global downturn forcefully halted, no recession in 2019 nor 2020 (March 2019)
  • German downturn will last at least three years (June 2019)
  • The rest of Europe is decoupling from the German industrial downturn (April 2019)
  • US Treasuries heading towards 1% (Summer 2019)

Testimonials

Raffaella is one of the most knowledgeable and insightful European macro economists with deep expertise and value-added perspective across the entirety of this important region. Over many years her insights into the political economy of the Eurozone and Emerging Europe have proven valuable to me and to our investment process.

Blaise C. AntinHead of Sovereign Research | The TCW Group

Raffaella Tenconi founded ADA to provide an innovative brand of research combining extensive experience and impressive credentials in macroeconomic and market analysis with novel insights from extensive field and survey work in a number of European economies. Her mission has become a remarkable success. Her combination of sound economic analysis and in-depth surveys and her passion for questioning the “established wisdom” have allowed Raffaella to provide deep and novel insights into the interplay of economics, finance and politics in the countries she analyzes. Her intellectual rigor and – if necessary – courage to challenge consensus views have enabled her to make some impressive and valuable calls like her out-of-market prediction that Britain would vote for Brexit. Her work has helped me to significantly deepen my understanding of the forces shaping the future of "Project Europe".

Markus Krygier, PhDCo-Chief Investment Officer, Strategic Investment Group

Over the many years I have known Raffaella Tenconi, she has demonstrated outstanding analytical and technical competence in the field of macroeconomic research. I was a regular reader of her work both during the years I worked as a fund manager and also later when I served as a ministry official. Her professional track record in covering not only CEE but also euro area macroeconomic developments has earned her an excellent reputation in investment banking and asset management circles.

Gabor OrbanChief Operating at Richter Gedeon Plc & Former State Secretary of the Hungarian Minister for the National Economy